Just recently, the United States of America’s President, Donald Trump, jolted the world with the announcement of a freeze in all US’ foreign aid to almost all countries except for Israel and Egypt that were exempted and would still continue to receive military funding. Resultantly, the entire world, especially the aid-dependent African nations, including Nigeria, is freaking out over the decision....Read Full Article >>➤
The stoppage, which is for an initial period of 90 days, is consistent with Trump’s promise of ‘making America great again’ and ensuring that every dollar his country spends benefits its citizens. The period, according to the stop work order, issued to the US State Department and the US Agency for International Development, USAID, (which has now been shut down), will allow time for a review of all the foreign aid programs with a view to determining if a modification, termination or a continuation is required.
The period will also allow time to determine if the program aligned with Trump’s foreign policy agenda. In a statement, Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, said: “Every dollar we spend, every program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions: Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?”
Similarly, in his executive order, President Trump stated that the US “foreign aid industry and bureaucracy are not aligned with American interests and are in many cases antithetical to American values.” Essentially all foreign assistance has been targeted with the exception of HIV, malaria and other deadly diseases, categorised under life-saving humanitarian assistance. Since the announcement, the whole world, including Nigeria, has been reeling from the surprising, but expected, pause. Trump, who has not reneged in fulfilling any of his campaign promises, had campaigned on the basis of commitment to America and Americans first.
In Nigeria, where humanitarian crisis is on a record high due to armed conflict, food insecurity, climate change and other natural disasters like flooding and drought, termination or modification in US aid would mark a significant shift in the Nigeria-US relations, which encompass trade, security, infrastructure development, governance and humanitarian assistance and dates back to 1960 upon Nigeria’s independence from the United Kingdom.
Among other issues, armed conflicts with Boko Haram in the Northeast, armed groups in northwest, community violence and farmers-herders clashes and attacks by criminal groups have caused widespread displacement, food insecurity, disruption in access to healthcare (though scarcely available) and malnutrition among children, requiring foreign aids to tackle the scourge amidst low budgetary allocations and lack of commitment at both the federal and state levels.
For instance, a 2024 report by Humanitarian Action estimated that 7.9 million people from across three states in the northeast region of the country (Borno, Adamawa and Yobe), were in need of humanitarian assistance, while an estimated $926.5 million was required to address the crisis.
The report noted that while the number of people in need has decreased from previous years, the severity and complexity of the needs of affected people has not diminished.
“Vulnerabilities differ based on location, age, and displacement status, and the interplay of the main drivers of the crisis,” it said.
The report further noted that while attacks on military and government installations are reducing, attacks on civilians by non-state armed groups have increased. As a result of the evolving security situation, the number of people in need may have increased. Essentially, well over 10 million Nigerians from across the northeast, northwest and south south part of the country required humanitarian assistance during the period.
The report equally noted a significant funding shortfall prior to the US foreign aid freeze, saying that of the US$1.3 billion requested to assist six million people in 2023, only 37 percent, or $479.8 million, was received at the end of October of that year.
“This significant funding shortfall, compounded by persistent security challenges and movement restrictions, hampered delivery, leaving many acute needs unmet,” the report said.
Consequently, a vast majority of Nigerians believe that the pause is a wake-up call and the shock-therapy needed to reshape Nigeria and force the leader into restructuring the system.
Minister of State for Health and Social Welfare, Dr. Iziaq Adekunle Salako, addressing a press conference, described the freeze as a wake-up call for Nigeria to reduce its dependency on international funding and strengthen its healthcare system.
“The international aid being reviewed in the U.S. suggests that aid and grants to developing countries like Nigeria are likely to decrease. This is a wake-up call for us to rethink our strategies, exert ourselves, and work toward a more self-sufficient healthcare system,” he said.
“I will not mourn over this: I will not be unhappy about this because as a country, I don’t think we should always continue to depend on aid from other countries.
“I won’t begrudge Donald Trump for this. I will just advise our leaders to come back home, look at what we have, harness and be prudent with it, block the leakages and use our resources to develop our country,” said Prof. Babatunde Ayeleru, CEO, French Village.
Average $1bn annual donation at risk
In the midst of the ongoing brouhaha over the aid freeze and closure of USAID, available data has shown that Nigeria runs the risk of either losing or having an average $1 billion annual aid received from the US drastically reduced in an event the US decides to either modify or terminate the program in Nigeria.
Specifically, data from the US Department of State and USAID, shows that Nigeria received a sum of $5.996 billion for various humanitarian interventions in the last six years (2019 – 2024), approximately $1 billion annually.
Vanguard’s findings further revealed that the US government disbursed the highest sum for emergency responses in Nigeria in two years between 2023 and 2024 with $597.6 million deployed for that purpose.
HIV/AIDS and basic health followed with $547.6 million and $219.34 million donations respectively, thus making them the most vulnerable to any cut or eventual termination of the foreign aid program.
More so, a cut will compound the funding shortfall already being experienced as per Humanitarian Action.
Other top aid receiving sectors during the two year period include maternal and child health ($150.75m), operating expenses ($71.74m), agriculture ($50.43m), government and civil society ($36.77m), water supply and sanitation ($24.20m) and basic education ($23.42m for 2024 alone).
In 2024, Nigeria emerged the seventh biggest recipient of USAID donations, behind countries like war-torn Ukraine, which received $6.35 billion, Jordan, Ethiopia, Palestinian territories, Sudan and Democratic Republic of Congo.
Chigozie Nwegwu, Chief Executive Officer at Oxbourn Consulting Ltd, described the size of USAID donations to Nigeria as substantial, but regretted that the impact was not felt by Nigerians, “apart from photo opportunities associated with HIV programs, occasional events and the Internally Displaced Persons, IDP, relief materials.”
He said: “The size of USAID donations to Nigeria over the last five years, totaling over $5 billion, is substantial, yet its impact remains negligible. In 2020, the exchange rate stood at approximately N420–N470 per dollar, whereas today, it is around N1,600 per dollar. Whether calculated using today’s rate or that of five years ago, this translates to an equivalent of N2–N8 trillion.
“Despite this staggering figure, there is no visible evidence of at least N2 trillion impact across Nigeria, aside from photo opportunities associated with HIV programs, occasional events, and IDP relief materials.
“Apart from government agencies, Non-Governmental Organisations, NGOs, and consultants that work closely with USAID, the majority of Nigerians are largely unaware of USAID’s presence, contributions or impact in Nigeria. This simply means that the absence of USAID in Nigeria will not be felt in any area, especially in addressing humanitarian crises in the Northern region.”
“Following recent revelations and the subsequent shutdown of USAID operations by the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, critical questions arise: How much of the over $5 billion was truly deployed for impactful initiatives in Nigeria? And how much of it was effectively utilized by their Nigerian program and project partners? What is undeniable, however, is the glaring lack of tangible evidence or significant outcomes from USAID’s over $5 billion investment in Nigeria,” Nwegwu remarked.
USAID project partners in Nigeria, NGOs in limbo, laying off
Emerging indications have shown that the project partners, including those in HIV/AIDS assisted programs, are already being affected by the suspension with most of them already downsizing their workforce.
Contrary to the claim by Trump’s administration that HIV funding is exempted
from the funding freeze, a reliable source told Vanguard that most NGOs involved in HIV/AIDS programs have indefinitely closed shops and have asked their staff to stop work until further notice.
The source specifically mentioned Pop Council, which is into research related activities, Heartland Alliance Nigeria and Caritas Nigeria among others, saying that they have since laid off field workers and last week, they asked the administrative staff to also stop work.
Chioma Kanu, an Executive Director at Mothers And Marginalised Advocacy Centre (MAMA Centre), an NGO, based in Lagos, told Vanguard that most NGOs are heavily affected by the suspension “because most of us depend on funds from the US government”. “US aid has all closed down; so, there’s no more funding till further notice. Many people are out of jobs globally because of it too,” she said.
“The US government’s decision to stop foreign aid temporarily is not only dwindling funds for NGOs but also putting many workers out of jobs!
“Most organizations that are dependent on funds from the US government have shutdown operations and laid off some staff owing to this development. The few working are seeking alternative sources of funding to sustain their operations as well as programs,” Kanu said.
She noted that many HIV/AIDS patients receiving antiretroviral drugs are worse hit because they may have to start buying the drugs themselves and “it costs so much for treatment.”
I’m guessing many deaths might occur before the expiration of this 90 day period, she stated.
She hinted that the stop work order was first issued in December by President Trump ahead of his inauguration in January, noting that her NGO – MAMA Center – was denied funds in December as a result of the suspension.
“We had applied and received approval from SCALE (Strengthening Civic Advocacy and Local Engagement) for funding for our advocacy projects but around December 2024, while we were still expecting the funds to be released, SCALE wrote us to say that they no longer have the approval to disburse the funds,” she revealed.
Aid freeze’ll create budgetary shortfall, strain national resources — Experts
While Nigeria and the rest of African countries are trying to come to terms with the possible implications of a cut in US foreign aid, experts in the financial sector have said that suspension would have serious budgetary implications for the nation as it may result in diversion of funds from the budget to finance aid assisted programs.
They posited that reallocation of funds could strain national resources and potentially delay or halt key programs. They added that it will create a significant budgetary shortfall.
They, therefore, charged the federal government to increase domestic allocations to critical sectors of the economy, including health, education, and infrastructure to replace the halted foreign aid.
Suspension’ll create significant disruption in vital sectors — Parthian Partners
Funmi Adebowale, Head of Research at Parthian Partners, asserted that U.S aid has played a key role in sectors such as healthcare, education, governance, infrastructure, humanitarian relief, and economic growth in Nigeria, saying that the 90-day suspension would cause significant disruption in these vital sectors.
She further stated that security programs, such as training for the military and police, could be compromised, thereby weakening Nigeria’s ability to combat terrorism and insurgencies, and increase instability.
“For Nigeria, the United States has been one of the largest and most reliable sources of foreign aid, with the country receiving $1.02 billion in 2023, making it the 7th largest recipient of U.S. foreign assistance.
“The halt in foreign aid could delay or halt critical healthcare programs, putting vulnerable populations at greater risk.
“Educational initiatives, especially in rural areas, that rely on international aid to improve school facilities, train teachers, and provide learning materials will experience setbacks.
“Furthermore, foreign aid is essential for humanitarian efforts, especially in addressing the displacement caused by conflict in northeastern Nigeria. Without this funding, providing basic necessities like shelter, food, and medical care to displaced persons will become much more challenging.
“Health initiatives, especially those funded by organizations like PEPFAR and USAID, could be disrupted, leading to higher morbidity and mortality rates as well as a reduction in life expectancy. “Also, infrastructure development, which is already a major challenge, will be further delayed, hindering economic growth and development,” she said.
Continuing, she said: “NGOs and international agencies that provide humanitarian aid to displaced persons, especially in the northeast, will struggle without U.S funding, exacerbating the suffering of vulnerable populations.
“Overall, the suspension of foreign aid will have wide-ranging negative effects on Nigeria’s health, education, infrastructure, security, and humanitarian efforts, worsening the country’s development prospects.”
“The government may have to find alternative funding sources or reduce the scope of projects, which could slow down economic growth and development. “Additionally, increased reliance on government debt to cover the funding gap could have long-term financial consequences,” she added.
Suspension, shock therapy to cure Nigeria of aid dependency — Highcap Securities
In his submission, Mr. David Adonri, Vice Chairman, Highcap Securities, commended President Trump for the move, saying that it is the needed therapy to cure Nigeria of its aids dependency.
“President Trump does not want the US to continue acting as Father Christmas. His policy is centered on engagement with other countries that generate mutual benefits,” he said. “With abundant human and natural resources, Nigeria has no business being a begging nation.”
“If aid fails to come from the US, programs that depend on aid will suffer except if the government steps in to rescue the situation.
“It may result in diversion of funding from the budget to fund aid assisted programs. As a result, the budget may suffer from a shortfall,” Adonri added.
Private partners expected to pick up the slack — Olatunde Amolegbe
Olatunde Amolegbe, CEO, Arthur Stephen Asset Management, ASAM, said: “I believe the suspension of foreign aids by the US could very well impact Nigeria in some very important areas such as fighting diseases, maternal health and child nutrition.
“We, however, must note that most of the aid is given in collaboration with other private sector partners. The hope is that these partners will pick up the slack from the gap left by the US government.”
“The consolation the country might have from this situation will come from our not relying on aid to finance our budget unlike some other countries.
“The impact should have been more pronounced if it affects the funding of multilateral institutions that we tend to borrow from to fund our budget ,” he stated.
Impact’ll be minimal — CPPE
Muda Yusuf, Managing Director, Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprises, CPPE, said: “This announcement is just about the suspension for 90 days, after which Trump may decide to either cut down or rationalise the aid in line with his American first policy.
“Even if he decides to completely stop it, of course, it will have some marginal effects in some key areas where U.S aid has a lot of impact, particularly in the area of humanitarian assistance, in the area of some NGOs that are supporting democracy, free enterprise, anti-corruption, and so on.
“Of course, those will be affected by that kind of policy. But at a macro level, I don’t think the impact will be that significant.
“In any event, the U.S. is not the only country supporting Nigeria with aid. We also get significant support from the European Union, Canada, the World Bank, the United kingdom, and even from the UN.
“These are some of the assistance we get. So, there are quite a number of foreign aid that you can get. The good thing about Nigeria is that, unlike some African countries, we are not that heavily dependent on aid.
“Yes, we may be owing in terms of debt, but in terms of aid, I don’t think we are so heavily dependent on it.
“But everything considered, I don’t think this will have any profound impact on Nigeria’s economy, on our current initiatives to improve the general conditions, and the general living standards of the people.”
This will strengthen us begin to do things right — CEO, French Village
Prof. Babatunde Ayeleru, CEO, French Village, said: “We are talking about the decision of Donald Trump to stop all foreign aid to all countries globally, including our dear country Nigeria.
“As the president of his country, the United States of America, he has the right to do that. His people have elected him to take charge for the next four years and during the campaign, I am sure he had gone round to tell them what he was going to do and they have found that exactly what they wanted was what he promised that he was going to do.
“So, now that he’s in power through the mandate of his people, he has the right to take any decision, including stoppage of foreign aid to countries, especially Nigeria.
“God has blessed every country with its own resources. In Nigeria, we are blessed with human and natural resources. All we need to do is to harness these resources and make sure that what is constituting all kinds of obstacles for us to make proper use of our resources is blocked.
“We have money in this country, we have crude oil and we have other mineral resources but corruption is the problem. What should go to the government goes to individuals.
“If Trump is not giving us any aid, let it be. Let’s come back home and harness what we have. There is oil, gold and a lot of mining going on in Zamfara, including in my area at Oyo north. Let the government harness these and bring them together for the good of everybody so that we won’t be running to America or Europe every time begging for aid.
“If we keep going cap in hand begging for assistance, we will be subjecting ourselves to a state of slavery. Nigeria will not collapse, we will not close down our country because we are not getting aid from America. This will rather strengthen us to begin to do things right, to begin to manage what we have and be prudent with it.” ...Read Full Article >>➤
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